Trading With The Geek Recap –The Geek Goes On Vacation
I went on vacation in July, not the whole month, just one week, so I only had three weeks of actual tips. Because of the way the dates fell the last day of June was a Monday so I included those trades in my analysis for this month. Also included is 3 bonus trades I made testing out my strategies with short term like 5 and 10 minute options. I also missed out on one trade, a monthly call on the SPX, due to a combination of factors. I wasn’t able to get in when I was in front of the computer and when I could have gotten in I wasn’t in front of the computer. So, I actually made a total of 23 trades in July.
Total Cost Of Trading = $11,000
Total Return On Investment = $12025
Return On Investment = 9.3%
Trading was pretty tough last month. First, it was the middle of the summer, market volumes are light and range bound/short term moves and signals are more likely than not. Second, there was a lot of news last month not least of all Greece, which is still making waves if only much much smaller ones. Add in an expected weak earnings season, steady but not strong economic data, turmoil in Chinese markets and FOMC rate hike expectations and you can start to get the picture.
Basically, this combination equals a choppy and volatile market, range bound, driven by day to day news… perfect conditions for day traders. I was able to win 13 of my trades, lost only 9 and had the one flub. My win rate is 56.5%, just enough for a 9.3% return on investment. I’m not happy about the one I missed, it is in the money and set to close in hours…. adding it into the mix would up my win rate to 60.8% and my returns to 17.5%.
July Was One Hot Month, For Volatility
Week One 6/29/2015
I added this week into the mix because is was the very end of June and the trades were primarily open in July, and closed in July. Honestly, I toyed with the idea because it was not one of my best week’s of trading but included it I did… me ignoring it doesn’t make those trades go away. Looking back, Greece was the story of the week. They still had not come to a solution, the month was slipping away and headlines changed every couple of hours. I made my 5 trades, 2 profited, the Euro and the Yen. In retrospect my call on gold was counter to my trades on currency, I should have known better.
Week Two 7/6/2015
This was my worst week of trading in quite some time. I lost four trades and missed out on one. Greece issues were coming to an end, but not quite over, China data was weak and new government actions were tanking mainland indices. US labor data was healthy, and yet no one believes it, and earnings season was on the horizon. Poor expectations led the market lower, news sent it spinning, and I got burned. Blah!
Week Three 7/13/2015
This is the week after my wedding, and the week before my honeymoon. I was exited for sure, and got my grip back on the market. I lost one trade, gold, a monthly call that is still open as of this writing, but my other four were spot on. Continued craziness in China roiled the market, but data and earnings helped to lift the dollar … once again I flubbed my position on gold, I think I need to add it to my list of correlations.
There was no week four. I was in the Caribbean. To read about my trip you can find a link in my forum thread, Tips From The Geek.
Week Five 7/27
Another good week, I was nice and alert after my week off. Only one trade failed, a put on oil, but it would have succeeded if I had used longer expiry. Yeah right, so. I used a three day put because I was not confident of my outlook. Supply was overshadowing demand but prices had yet to succumb to the pressure, I saw a drop but thought it would be quick and bounce back, I was wrong. A surprise draw in WTI supplies supported prices, and then four days later they began the decline I have been foreseeing.
I made 3 bonus trades this month, all on the SPX. I have been testing my simple stochastic strategy on short term charts and have had some good successes. The 15 and 30 minute charts are good for one hour expiry, the 2 minute charts I like to use 5 and 10 minute expiry. I call it simple, and it starts from the simple approach but I also use the more advanced divergence/convergence analysis, support and resistance and a little bit of fundamentals.