Trading With The Geek Recap – November was Not a Bad Month!
All I have to say is that market got Trumped in November. All other things aside, the market seems to be happy with the outcome of the election, or at least happy the elections are over, in the US at any rate. The good news for us traders, and an example we should all take a moment to examine, is the fact that the market did move, and strongly, producing trends in equities, currencies, gold and oil that were all very, very tradable. Trade with the trend my friend, it is your friend, and your friend wants to lead you to profits. The key is understanding when a trend is in place, how to trade it, and being able to wait for real trends to develop.
I am not going to sugar coat things this month. I have no one to blame but myself. I followed all the rules, used my best judgment, watched the market and made my trades and all I can say is, I did pretty dam good last month and I am not ashamed to say it. Strong trends produce great trading, that’s all I have to say about that. There were four weeks and 20 tips. The data breaks down like this. I had 3 weeks with 4 of 5 wins, 1 week was 3 for 5, for a total of 15 wins or 75%. Within those weeks I had a perfect 4/4 with gold ad the USD/JPY, and a 4/5 rate with the EUR/USD. My total cost of trading was $10,000, my total return was $13,875, my net for the month was $3,875 or 38.75%.
What Happened In November?
What happened in November. Well, aside from positive economic trends and the exit from a 6 quarter earnings recession the US presidential election was held. The results were a bit of a surprise, even for me who was not in favor of the other choice. Regardless, the market moved and strongly, unleashing a long pent up secular bull market that has a long way yet to run. I expect to see the rally continue into the end of the year, and well into next year, and probably into the year after that at least.
Week One, November 7th 2016
“This is election week, it is tomorrow in fact, so the market is wanky. Be careful. NADEX traders look to take profits when they are present, midweek or so I think, CySEC/EU traders look to use the end of tomorrow/3 day expiry where indicated and may god have mercy on our souls…” Well, like I said, even I was surprised and pleasantly so, considering the aftermath and the great results I had. The first of 3 HA! moments I had last month, the other two not so positive. Wins, 4 out of 5.
Week Two, November 14th 2016
“S&P 500, the index is set to move up test and set a new all time high. Dont think it won’t it won’t happen. The US investment community has pretty much given the Trump economy and thumbs up, the rally is on. I’m bullish trading a call below 2165 end of week.” NADEX demo account trade: Buy the 2172.50 strike at $35, end of week.” The second HA! moment? When OPEC came out and once again talked prices up, killing my put trade on oil. The good news is that was my only loss that week, 4 out of 5 wins.
Week Three, November 21st 2016
“Another big week for the global markets. The Trump rally is still on, oil prices are bounding on OPEC hopes, the dollar is surging, lots of economic data and anticipation of the Santa Rally, and the next round of earnings. I will be looking to take profits early where possible.” The third HA!moment, once again at the hands of OPEC, was when prices fell back to earth when the first attempt to support prices ran out of steam. Once again the only loss for the week, 4 out of 5 wins.
Week Four, November 28th, 2016
“Time for some follow through. The market has surged to new highs, overcoming fear of Trump and looking to the future of higher corporate earnings, economic growth and global prosperity. This week could be huge, now that the bull is unleashed a round of good strong monthly macro data could seal the deal on a Santa Rally, a long term rally into next year and an extension of the really long term secular bull market. That’s what I say.” We didn’t see much follow through, but we also didn’t see much pull back, just a nice consolidation above previous all time highs. Just what a longer term bull wants to see. A base for another leg higher. I lost 2 of 5, 3 wins, not the best week but not a bad end to a great month.