Another month of crappy sideways market action driven by central bank uncertainty, with a touch of volatility a la FedSpeak
Recap September Tips From The Geek
Another month of crappy sideways market action driven by central bank uncertainty and FedSpeak influenced volatility has come to an end. Thank heavens, I’m having a hard time with all this Fed transparency and so is the market. If they’d do or not do whatever it is they are going to do and just do it things would be fine. All this back and forth between members, both voting and non-voting, is nothing more than grandstanding and serves no purpose other than to muddy the waters. Each time they speak the market freaks out, sentiment swings in whichever direction the last member seemed to indicate, volatility returns and the natural functioning of the economy and and the market is impeded. I for one am sick of it and want this cartel of secret bankers to go back where they belong, deep into the background.
Total Cost Of Trading = $10,000
Total Return On Trading = 9,250
Total Return On Trading = -7.5%
I hate to lay blame on my losses anywhere but where it is due and that is with me and my decisions. However, there comes a time when good trades go bad for reasons that can be attributed squarely on the shoulders of specific individuals such as the FOMC. My month was going fine, perhaps better than fine, up to the week of the meeting. That week a half dozen or more Fed speakers contradicted each other and the FOMC, then the FOMC came out and did… something weird. They said that the evidence supporting a rate hike had improved, but that long term outlook for growth was less. Basically that there was more reason than every for them to raise rates but that they probably wouldn’t raise them very much if they did. What a bunch of jokers, but let me get back to the point. Four Mondays in September, 20 tips. I won 10 of them and lost 10, I had one perfect week and perfectly fouled up week, and ended up with a small loss for the month.
What Happened In September
What happened in September is that the FOMC and the individual governors, members and such can’t keep their mouths shut. The organization is central to the American economy, it’s message one that alters the very foundations of that economy, so it is utterly irresponsible and possibly even criminal for them to manipulate the market the way they do. I understand the need for central banks but like children they should be seen and not heard, except once every 6 weeks when they give the latest update on economic situation and underlying interest rates.
Week One September 5th 2016
This was a holiday shortened week for the US market, Labor Day don’t you know, so I used a few 3 day expiries to keep my trades within that week. Based on this week my month got off to a great start, 4 out of 5 trades were winners, and the next was even better.
Week Two September 12th 2016
This was the first full week of the month and my best week of the month. All five trades closed in the money, one by the hair of it’s chin. My trade on the EUR/USD was in the money by only 1 single pip. Enough though, enough.
Week Three September 19th 2016
This was my worst week and to be honest, I knew it had that potential going into the week. In my original tips I said something to the effect that the week was basically a crap shoot and I was right. The FOMC meeting itself was bad enough, all the Fed speak leading up to it only made things worse. I lost all five trades this week.
Week Four September 26th 2016 This was not my worst week but it wasn’t far off. I only profited on 1 trade, oil, and that may have just been luck. The markets were still reeling from the FOMC meeting, economic data was confusing, rate hike expectations were rocking back and forth like a boat on the ocean and trading as erratic as a drunken horse trying to pull a plow.