Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis 09/30-10/04/2013

The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

 

1. Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate

10/01/2013 – Tuesday at 04:30 am GMT

 

What will it affect: AUD

Forecast: unchanged 2.50%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, RBA official website

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The Interest Rate decision is immediately followed by the RBA Rate Statement which offers insights into the reasons that determined the rate change or why it wasn’t modified. This is the primary tool used to communicate the Bank’s monetary policy and usually contains hints about future decisions.

 

Directional bias:  UP if the Rate is increased or if the Statement contains a hawkish outlook

                                  DOWN if the Rate is decreased or if the Statement contains a dovish outlook

 

How I would trade this event: I will probably wait until volatility has settled down and decide afterwards.

 

 

 

2. ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

10/02/2013 – Wednesday at 11:45 am GMT (Press Conference at 12:30 pm GMT)

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: unchanged 0.50%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory, ECB official website

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Although the Rate decision creates decent volatility, traders usually wait for Mario Draghi’s (ECB President) speech at the Press Conference which follows 45 minutes later. The President will read a speech and then he will answer audience questions. The second part is the most important one because investors and traders around the world try to interpret his answers and attitude, but they often fail to do it correctly and this generates sharp reversals and whipsaws. Caution is recommended if trading at the time.

 

Directional bias:  UP if the Rate is increased or if Mario Draghi has a hawkish attitude

                                  DOWN if the Rate is decreased or if Mario Draghi has a dovish attitude

 

How I would trade this event: I refrain from trading at the time of such events.

 

 

 

3. FED Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks

10/02/2013 – Wednesday at 7:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and Indices

Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily FX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The Chairman is due to speak at the Federal Reserve Bank’s Conference titled “Community Banking in the 21st Century, in St. Louis. The speech will most likely generate some volatility, especially if Ben Bernanke will talk about the monetary stimulus.

  

Directional bias: UP if the Chairman’s attitude will be hawkish

                                   DOWN if the Chairman’s attitude will be dovish

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such speeches.

 

 

 

4. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

10/04/2013 – Friday early morning (exact time not known at the moment)

 

What will it affect: JPY, Japanese indices

Forecast: unchanged

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Once every month the members of the BoJ Policy Board meet to analyze economic developments and to decide whether to adjust the Interest Rate or not. At each meeting they establish a Guideline for Money Market Operations. The recommendations contained in this document will shape the future monetary direction.

  

Directional bias: UP if the Statement contains a hawkish outlook

                                  DOWN if the Statement contains a dovish outlook

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events.

 

 

 

5. US Non Farm Payrolls

10/04/2013 – Friday at 12:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US Indices and Stocks

Forecast: 179K from the previous 169K

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: This is the most important US data related to the jobs market. A higher number is indicative of a thriving economy where people find jobs more easily and the opposite is valid for a lower number. Employment is also highly correlated with consumer spending which is a major part of the US economy: employed people spend more than unemployed ones.

 

Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 179K

                                 DOWN if the actual number is lower than 179K

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy 15 minute Puts on USD/JPY if the value will be lower than 175K

                 

 

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Keep Tracking of the Upcoming Binary Options Trading  Events on CommuniTraders Social Trading Platform!

 

 Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.

 

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