The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 03/31-04/07/2014

The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

 

1. Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY)

03/31/2014 – Monday at 09:00 am GMT

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: 0.6% from the previous 0.7%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: In the Euro Zone the Consumer Price Index is the main gauge for inflation and therefore it is closely monitored by the ECB as they will adjust the Interest Rate to keep inflation between certain levels and maintain price stability. This indicator basically measures the inflation of the entire Euro Zone and that is why its release can highly impact the market.

 

Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 0.6%

                                  DOWN if the value is lower than 0.6%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on EUR/USD if the value will be higher than 0.7%

 

 

2. Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision and Rate Statement

04/01/2014 – Tuesday at 3:30 am GMT

 

What will it affect: AUD, Australian stocks and indices

Forecast: no Interest Rate change is anticipated (2.50%)

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters

Why traders care and what to expect: Often the Rate itself is already priced in the market and sometimes traders are more focused on the Statement that follows because it may offer hints about future rate changes. The RBA reveals through the Rate Statement important insights into the economic factors which influenced the current rate decision and discusses the economic outlook.

 

Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement offers hints about future increases

                                  DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement offers hints about future decreases

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events. If a clear direction is established, I would trade accordingly.

 

 

3. US ISM Manufacturing PMI

04/01/2014 – Tuesday at 02:00 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: 54.2 from the previous 53.2

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, DailyFX, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory

Why traders care and what to expect: This is a survey put together by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and it is based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers. The survey shows the managers’ opinion on current business conditions and it acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Better-than-expected numbers usually strengthen the greenback.

 

Directional bias:  UP the actual value is higher than 54.2

                                  DOWN if the actual value is lower than 54.2

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on EUR/USD if the value will be higher than 55.5

 

 

4. ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

04/03/2014 – Thursday at 11:45 am GMT (Conference starts at 12:30 pm GMT)

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: no change anticipated from the current 0.25%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters

Why traders care and what to expect: Usually the market starts being volatile during the Press Conference rather than the Interest Rate release itself. All eyes will be focused on the ECB President Mario Draghi, who will read the prepared statement and afterwards he will answer journalists’ questions. This Q&A session is known to generate the strongest moves as all market participants try to interpret his answers and find hints about future Euro direction.

 

Directional bias: UP if the President is hawkish or the Rate is increased

                                  DOWN if the President is dovish or the Rate is decreased

 

How I would trade this event: I will trade after the Conference is over, only if a clear direction has established.

 

 

5. US Non Farm Payrolls

04/04/2014 – Friday at 12:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: 196K from the previous 175K

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

Why traders care and what to expect:  This report shows the change in employment numbers, excluding the farming sector and it’s considered the most important employment-related indicator. A higher number of employed people might predict an increase in consumer spending, which represents a major part of overall economic activity.

 

Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 196K

                                  DOWN if the actual number is lower than 196K

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on USD/JPY if the actual number will meet or surpass expectations.

 

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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.

 

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