The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 05/05-09/2014

The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

 

 1. Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision and Rate Statement

05/06/2014 – Tuesday at 4:30 am GMT

 

What will it affect: AUD, Australian stocks and indices

Forecast: no Interest Rate change is anticipated (2.50%)

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Interest Rates basically reflect the return on holding a currency, however the main focus will be on the Rate Statement rather than the Rate decision itself, which is often already priced in the market. The RBA offers through the Statement explanatory notes regarding the current Rate decision and clues upon their future economic perspective.

 

Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement offers hints about future increases

                                  DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement offers hints about future decreases

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events. If a clear direction is established, after the event has finished, I would trade accordingly.

 

 

 

2. US Trade Balance

05/06/2014 – Tuesday at 12:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and indices

Forecast: -40.1B from the previous of -42.3B

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, Daily FX

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The Trade Balance is expressed in billions of dollars and reflects the difference between imported and exported services and goods. Although the US experiences a trade deficit for some time now, meaning that imports exceed exports, a slight increase in numbers is usually seen as good for US and its dollar.

 

Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than -40.1B

                                 Down if the actual value is lower than -40.1B

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Call on S&P 500 if the value will be higher than -40 Billions.

 

 

 

3. Fed Chair Janet Yellen Testifies

05/07/2014 – Wednesday at 2:00 pm GMT 

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, in Washington DC. The testimony will be divided in two parts: first a prepared statement will be read (which will be also published on the Fed’s website) and afterwards, a Q&A session will start. Considering that the questions asked by the Committee are not known beforehand, this second part of the testimony will be most likely the one that creates the biggest volatility.

 

Directional bias:  UP if Yellen has a hawkish attitude

                                 DOWN if Yellen has a dovish attitude

 

How I would trade this event: Direction will be highly influenced by her attitude and answers; we might witness some sharp reversals so I won’t be trading at the time.

 

 

 

4. Bank of England Interest Rate decision

05/08/2014 – Thursday at 11:00 am GMT

 

What will it affect: GBP, FTSE

Forecast: no change is anticipated from the current 0.50%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: For currency valuation the Interest Rate is a crucial factor which can generate lasting trends. Almost certainly the Rate is not going to change this week and this makes it somewhat less important but the event still remains a potential market mover that can generate irregular movement at the time of its release.

 

Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased

                                  DOWN if the Rate is decreased

 

How I would trade this event: I do not trade at the time of such events.

 

 

 

5. ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

05/08/2014 – Thursday at 11:45 am GMT (Conference starts at 12:30 pm GMT)

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: no change anticipated from the current 0.25%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: There’s been a lot of talk about a Rate adjustment if European inflation doesn’t increase, but last week we saw the CPI climb from 0.5% to 0.7%. If the ECB considers this increase satisfactory, we will not see a rate adjustment; otherwise. Prepare for strong moves. The Press Conference will generate volatility regardless of the rate outcome.

 

Directional bias: UP if the President is hawkish or the Rate is increased

                                  DOWN if the President is dovish or the Rate is decreased

 

How I would trade this event: I will trade after the Press Conference, only if a clear direction has been established.

 

 

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 Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.

 

 

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