The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 06/30-07/03/2014
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision and Rate Statement
07/01/2014 – Tuesday at 4:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD, Australian stocks and indices
Forecast: no Interest Rate change is anticipated (2.50%)
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: For almost a year the Cash Rate of Australia has been maintained at the same level and market analysts do not anticipate a change in the near future. Considering that the Interest Rate is often already priced in the market, the main focus will be on the Rate Statement which tends to offer clues regarding RBA’s economic outlook.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement offers hints about future increases
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement offers hints about future decreases
How I would trade this event: I don’t trade during such events. If a clear direction is established after the event has finished, I would trade accordingly.
2. UK Manufacturing PMI
07/01/2014 – Tuesday at 8:30 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: 56.7 from the previous of 57.0
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: PMI stands for Purchasing Managers Index, and these are monthly indicators derived from surveys of private sector companies. Depending on the sector covered by the survey, their release dates are different: Manufacturing – 1st working day of the month, Construction – 2nd working day and Services – 3rd working day. For all of these sectors, a figure above 50 .0 indicates industry expansion.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 56.7B
Down if the actual value is lower than 56.7B
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on GBP/USD if the value will be lower than 56.0
3. Australian Trade Balance
07/02/2014 – Wednesday at 1:30 am GMT
What will it affect: AUD, Australian stocks and indices
Forecast: -0.21B from the previous of -0.12B
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, Daily FX
Why traders care and what to expect: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked to each other as the domestic currency must be bought by foreigners in order to pay for these exports. The Trade Balance shows us the difference between exports and imports of a country and Australia experiences a slight deficit, meaning that imports exceed exports for the time being.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than -0.21B
Down if the actual value is lower than -0.21B
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on AUD/USD if the value will be as expected or even lower.
4. ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
07/03/2014 – Thursday at 11:45 am GMT (Conference starts at 12:30 pm GMT)
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: not expected to change from current 0.15%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: Considering the latest cut down of the Interest Rate from 0.25% to 0.15%, we are certain that all market participants will have their attention focused on this event. For this month no change is anticipated, but still ECB’s Press Conference will generate volatility and we might witness sharp moves during the Q&A part in which Mario Draghi will answer journalists’ inconvenient questions. Don’t forget that the Press Conference is webcasted on ECB’s website.
Directional bias: UP if the President is hawkish or the Rate is increased
DOWN if the President is dovish or the Rate is decreased
How I would trade this event: I will trade after volatility has calmed down and only if a clear direction has established.
5. US Non Farm Payrolls
07/03/2014 – Thursday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices
Forecast: 211K from the previous 217K
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The typical release date of this indicator is the first Friday of the month but the United States celebrate Independence Day this Friday so the report will be released a day earlier than usual. Although NFP is without a doubt one of the top market movers coming out from the US, if we do not see in this week’s release a drastic change, it could be overshadowed by ECB’s Press Conference due to their overlapping.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 211K
DOWN if the actual number is lower than 211K
How I would trade this event: Considering that the time of its release coincides with ECB Press Conference, I will not trade based on the outcome of this indicator.
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.