Tough Month But Good Trades
September was tough month for the markets. Against all expectations global fears mounted to the level a correction began. Fear of slowing growth as well as some weaker than expected data were mostly to blame. Several factors contributed to the fear including poor Chines and EU data, tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, ISIS and Ebola were all on the list. I was able to adjust my strategy despite the headwinds and capture a relatively decent month of gains. There were five Monday’s in the month so that means a total of 25 tips. Out of those 25 only 8 failed to profit, I admit a few of my wins were by the skin of my teeth but wins they were. This means my win ratio for the month of September is over 68%, above my average and well above long term profitability and account sustainability levels. My Total cost of trading was $5,000 with a gross return of $6,250 for a net return on investment of over 25%, just the way I like it.
Total Number Of Trades = 25
Total Cost Of Trades = $5,000
Total Number Of Profitable Trades = 17
Total Return = $6,290
Net Return = 25.8% On Investment
The reason why September was such a tough month is that I, and expect a fair portion of other market participants, entered the month with the notion the markets would move higher. They had been moving higher, and set a new all time high. The summer trading vacation was over and market volume was expected to return along with positive technical indications. What I didn’t see coming was that the number of geopolitical events, plus a weaker than expected NFP number and a wary stock market would soon turn the market from raging bull to timid correction. The good news is that I was nimble enough to read the writing on the wall and capture some profits anyway.
Recap Of September Trading
First off, September is the month we officially launched CT2.0. The new platform is fantastic and getting better every day. That being said, September was a decent month for the old Geek. I stuck to one week expiry, at first because I thought the market was trending and then because the volatility left me wondering just where the market was going to be in a month or so. I did pretty well with the major indices, got back into currency with some success, made a few swing trades and even had two perfect weeks. That’s what I really like, perfect weeks with no losses.
The first Monday of September is always Labor Day so the US market was closed. The market looked ready and so was I. The indices only moved marginally but gold began its rapid slide this week. I made the usual trade on the SPX which was a winner, my put on gold was a definite winner. I was able to capture the rally in the yen as well. My two losers this week were on the USO/Oil ETF and the Euro.
Week two was the actual launch of CT2.0. There were a few bugs but when aren’t there. They are just about exterminated and CT2.0 is rocking. Trading this week was affected by poor and unexpected NFP number the week before. The numbers added to fear of global slowing but were revised higher in the next month’s data. My trades on the SPX and DAX both failed, along with the Euro but gold continued its slide and oil began to react according to my analysis.
The September FOMC meeting and news conference was this week. The fed moved as expected, tapering QE, and gave some insight into interest rates. The market began to rally, and gold kept on sliding. This was one of my perfect weeks. The indices were moving on Fed news, as was gold, and I got on the right side of oil and the dollar. Trades on the S&P 500, USO, Gold, USD/JPY and the DAX were all winners.
This was the week after the Fed, and the week that geopolitical and growth fears really began to take their toll on the market. The correction in the S&P 500 began this week while other trends carried on. My trade on the indices failed, I profited on gold and the Euro but lost out on oil and the Yen.
This was my other perfect week. I jumped on board the near term weakness in the indices, using three day puts, and profited on the S&P and the DAX. The trend in gold carried it down to long term lows, oil fell from it’s near term peak and the dollar surged on weak global economics.