Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 11/04-11/2013

The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

 

1. Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Statement

11/05/2013 – Tuesday at 03:30 am GMT 

 

What will it affect: AUD, Australian stocks and indices

Forecast: no forecast is announced for the Statement; Rate – unchanged 2.50%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Both events take place at the same time but the Rate Statement is more important than the Rate decision because it contains commentary about the reasons that influenced the votes and shows the Bank’s stance on economic development.

 

Directional bias:  UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement is more hawkish than expected

                                 DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement is more dovish than expected

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such releases because movement is often erratic.

 

 

 

2. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

11/07/2013 – Thursday at 12:00 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: GBP, FTSE

Forecast: unchanged 0.50%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: No change is expected for the interest rate but the event will create volatility anyway. The Asset Purchase Facility represents the amount of money the Bank of England creates in order to stabilize the currency by purchasing assets in the open market. A larger sum is perceived as bearish by market participants but no changes are expected from the current 375B.

 

Directional bias:  UP if the Rate is increased or the APF decreased

                                 DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the APF increased

 

How I would trade this event: I only trade after a direction is clearly established and volatility settled down.

 

 

 

3. ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

11/07/2013 – Thursday at 12:45 pm GMT (Press Conference at 1:30 pm GMT)

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: unchanged 0.50%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily FX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The Rate is not expected to change so the actual release will probably not be the main market mover. Instead, the Press Conference that follows will generate strong moves and the main focus will be Mario Draghi’s attitude and answers to the journalists’ questions. Traders try to find clues about future rate decisions but they often misinterpret the President’s words and this creates sharp reversals.

       

Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the President has a hawkish attitude

                                   DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the President has a dovish attitude

 

How I would trade this event: I would wait for a clear direction to be established before trading.

 
 

 

4. US Gross Domestic Product

11/07/2013 – Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and Indices

Forecast: 2.0 from the previous 2.50%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The indicator shows the inflation adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the US economy. Most of the GDP components are known in advance and this makes a forecast of its value highly accurate but the actual release remains a high impact event.

 

Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 2.0%

                                 DOWN if the actual value is lower than 2.0%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy 15 minute Puts on EUR/USD if the actual value will meet expectations.

 

 

 

5. US Non Farm Payrolls

11/08/2013 – Friday at 1:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: 126K from the previous 148K

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX.

 

Why traders care and what to expect: This is the most important US jobs related indicator and almost always the market reacts strongly to its release. A higher number is indicative of a thriving economy with people finding jobs more easily and the opposite is valid for a lower number. Employment is also highly correlated with consumer spending which is a major part of the US economy.

 

Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 126K

                                 DOWN if the actual number is lower than 126K

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events. Once volatility is back to normal I will trade accordingly.

                 

 

 

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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.