Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 11/25-12/01/2013
The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. UK Inflation Report Hearings
11/26/2013 – Tuesday at 10:00 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify about inflation and economic outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hearings last a few hours and market behavior can be highly affected by Mark Carney’s attitude. I recommend staying away from trading until the hearings end.
Directional bias: UP if Mark Carney’s attitude is hawkish
DOWN if Mark Carney’s attitude is dovish
How I would trade this event: I will not trade until the hearings are over.
2. U.S. Consumer Confidence
11/26/2013 – Tuesday at 3:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and indices
Forecast: 72.2 from previous 71.2
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory
Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending; if consumers are confident about the state of the economy, the will probably spend more. The survey is released by The Conference Board Inc. and measures confidence among consumers from the perspective of business conditions, employment level and personal income. The index is derived from on a large sample of about 5,000 households which are asked to rate the conditions I mentioned and this large sample also gives it more reliability.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 72.2
DOWN if the value is lower than 72.2
How I would trade this event: I would buy a 15 minute Put and one hourly Put on EUR/USD if the value will be above 73.
3. U.S. Durable Goods Orders
11/27/2013 – Wednesday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, US Stocks and indices
Forecast: –1.5% from the previous 3.8%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: Goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years are considered “durable” and an increase in orders is indicative of a thriving economy because in times of economic instability people think more about their primary needs and not so much about buying durable items. The purchase of a durable good usually implies a larger investment from the part of the buyer so it suggests confidence in the economic situation.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value will be higher than -1.5%
DOWN if the actual value will be lower than -1.5%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on S&P500 if the value will be lower than 0.5%
4. German Preliminary Consumer Price Index
11/28/2013 – Thursday at 1:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: unchanged, 1.2%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The CPI is the main gauge of inflation – a higher CPI means that consumers pay more for the same product as they did over the last analyzed period so inflation has increased. If the CPI value exceeds a certain range the ECB may step in to counter the effects of inflation.
Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 1.2%
DOWN if the actual value is lower than 1.2%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on EUR/USD if the CPI value is lower than 1.2%
5. Canadian Gross Domestic Product
11/29/2013 – Friday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: CAD, Canadian indices
Forecast: 0.1% from the previous 0.3%
Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: The Gross Domestic Product is an economy’s broadest gauge of activity and health and it shows the change in the total value of all services and goods produced by Canada. A lower GDP value suggests a contracting economy and the opposite is true for a higher value.
Directional bias: UP if the GDP value is higher than 0.1%
DOWN if the GDP value is lower than 0.1%
How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Call on USD/CAD if the actual value will be lower than 0.2%.
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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.