April Tip from the Geek Recap – Been a Horrible Month
Well, sadly to say April was not a great month for the ol’ Geek Account. Not that my trades for April were that bad, just that the trades which closed in April were a little heavy on the loss side. In total, 20 trades closed last month 11 losers. Not the way I like to roll but as I mentioned in a previous losing month it doesn’t matter. I didn’t notice until doing the recap, my account was not negatively affected, my trading psychology was not screwed and I kept on trading. Why? Because I use money management in such a way that I never have to guess on how much to trade and I never worry about any one single loss. Again I can hear you asking why? Because my all time stats remain in good standing and are even improving. My all time winning percentage is 57%, plenty to ensure long term profits. My current month winning percentage is over 67% and will go higher provided my open trades remain in the money as they are now.
Opened Trades Still Remaining
I want to blame all my losses on Putin and his annexation of Crimea/incursion into the Ukraine but I know I have to spread the blame around. The BOJ is also somewhat at fault, standing by their current policy in the face of lackluster results and refusing to add to QE. No matter where I try to put the fault I know it is all mine so….here is how April turned out. 20 trades made for a cost of $4,000. Only 9 trades paid, much less than the 53% required to remain profitable, for a return of $1665 and a loss of $2335! Ouch. Of the 20 closed trades 7 carried over from the previous month. Of the 20 trades made in April 7 also carried into the current month.
Total Cost Of Trades = -$4000
Total Return = +$1665
Net Profit/Loss = -$2335 (-41% return of investment)
Recap Of April Tips
April itself wasn’t as bad as the actual closed trades in April. As I mentioned earlier 7 April trades were still open at the end of the month and so far in May I have been doing pretty well. Out of the 20 tips made in April, 11 are winners and 9 are losers, effectively washing out, at least in my mind, the losses incurred this month. The worst week of the month was the last week where all five tips produced spectacular losses.
Week One – All Falls Down
The first week of April actually started on a Tuesday, making the first Monday the 7th. I made my usual tips on the SPX, USD/JPY and Gold with two other assets in the mix. These were JPM and the USO. I trade JPM as proxy for the banking sector and do OK with it but not this time. Earnings were not enough to drive the sector and forecasts for the 2nd quarter were worse. My trade on the USO, the oil ETF, eeked out a gain. The SPX call had a one month expiry and good thing, it closed in the money. My put on gold also paid off in the wake of a dip in Ukraine fear. My call on the USD/JPY failed, without the backing of the BOJ hopes of more QE in Japan are misplaced.
Week Two – Bouncing
Earnings season began to heat up in this week. Expectations were not high but the first indications were for companies to meet or beat estimates. This helped drive the SPX and other indices to short term highs and I profited from a three day call. Three days because this was also the week before Easter and the markets were closed on Friday. A similarly timed put on gold paid off as well as did a call on the USD/JPY and the USO. A one month call on the DAX also paid off, making this my best week of the month. I was 100% right.
Week Three – Week of S&P
This week was the week of the S&P 500. What I mean is, this is the week in earnings season where the bulk of S&P 500 companies report earnings. The results were good and the market rose but resistance persisted and capped gains. One source of resistance was the Putin/Ukraine situation. At one time I felt as though Putin was manipulating the markets, one day causing them to go up, the next to go down. Weekly calls on the SPX and the DAX were profitable, I got in on dips caused by Putin-mania. My play on Gold that week did not succeed as planned, nor did my call on the USD/JPY. The BOJ met that week and as expected, did nothing. Their statements to the end they were not going to add to stimulus helped to strengthen the yen and put my trade out of the money. My redemption this week though was Apple. I was bullish but did not see the stock split coming, nor the $60+ dollar jump in prices. That trade closed in the money.
Week Four – Sucked.
This week sucked. It really really sucked. This was the week that the SPX was surging toward resistance, about to make a new high, and then a Ukrainian helicopter was shot down and the markets sank. This week every one of my trades failed because of the geopolitical issues and violence in the Ukraine. I hope it ends soon, for the people there, but also so it stops affecting the markets.