The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 04/28-05/01/2014

The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

 

1. UK Gross Domestic Product

04/29/2014 – Tuesday at 8:30 am GMT 

 

What will it affect: GBP, FTSE

Forecast: 0.9% from previous 0.7%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Although most of its components are know beforehand thus making its figure easy to anticipate, the Gross Domestic Product still remains a potential market mover due to its overall relevance. A significant growth in GDP is evidence of an increased level of economic activity which might bring concerns regarding inflation and raise questions regarding future interest rate decisions.

 

Directional bias:  UP if the actual value is higher than 0.9%

                                 DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.9%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on GBP/USD if the value will be lower than 0.7%.

 

 

 

2. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

04/30/2014 – Wednesday early morning GMT (3:00 am GMT according to some sources)

 

What will it affect: JPY, Japanese stocks and indices

Forecast: unchanged

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The Monetary Policy Statement released by the Bank of Japan includes the outcome of the Interest Rate decision itself and remarks upon the economic factors that influenced this decision. Most importantly, market participants search through the Statement for hints regarding future monetary direction and that is why the Press Conference, which will follow shortly after, will be closely monitored as well (some sources announce the Press Conference at 6:30 am GMT).

 

Directional bias: UP if the Statement contains a positive outlook

                                 DOWN if the Statement contains a negative outlook

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade during such events. Once volatility is back to normal and a clear direction is established, I would trade accordingly.

 

 

 

3. Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY)

04/30/2014 – Wednesday at 9:00 am GMT

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: 0.8% from the previous 0.5%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Simply put, this indicator measures inflation because an increase in consumer prices means that each Euro buys fewer goods and services and thus signifies a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro. As we all know ECB is constantly adjusting the Interest Rate in order to keep inflation between certain levels and maintain price stability. Mario Draghi’s comments made last week add extra weight to this week’s CPI release.

 

Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 0.8%

                                  DOWN if the value is lower than 0.8%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on EUR/USD if the value will be higher than 0.8%

 

 

 

4. US Federal Funds Rate

04/30/2014 – Wednesday at 6:00 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: unchanged from the current 0.25%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The US interest rate is not expected to change until 2015 but volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release. On top of that, the Statement will contain insights into the economic conditions that determined the FOMC members to keep the rate unchanged (or to change it if a major surprise occurs).

 

Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement is generally hawkish

                                   DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement is generally dovish

 

How I would trade this event: I would trade only after the events are over and a clear direction is established.

 

 

 

5. US Non Farm Payrolls

02/05/2014 – Friday at 12:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: 207K from the previous 192K

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Job creation is very important for any country, and this report shows the change in employment numbers in the non-farming sector. NFP is a leading indicator of consumer spending because a high level of employment predicts an increase in consumer spending, which represents an important part of overall economic activity.

 

Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 207K

                                  DOWN if the actual number is lower than 207K

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Call on USD/JPY if the actual number will surpass expectations.

 

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 Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.

 

 

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