The Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Trading Forecasts 05/12-16/2014

The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

 

1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment

05/13/2014 – Tuesday at 09:00 am GMT

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: 41.3 from the previous 43.2

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory DailyFX

 

Why traders care and what to expect: ZEW is considered one of the most reliable surveys focused on economic sentiment because it is derived from the opinion of financial experts which are better informed than the large public, thus making their opinion weigh more. They are asked to rate the current and future economic situation, a positive number of this survey indicates optimism regarding economic sentiment.

 

Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than 41.3

                                 DOWN if the actual number is lower than 41.3

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on DAX if the actual value will be lower than 40.

 

 

 

2. United States Retail Sales

05/13/2014 – Tuesday at 12:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: 0.5% from the previous 1.2%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Knowing that Retail Sales make up for a hefty part of Consumer Spending, which represents about two thirds of all economic activity in the US, propels this indicator into the must watch list of economic data. The timeliness of its release also adds to its significance into the market.

 

Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.5%

                                 DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.5%

 

How I would trade this event: I would place an hourly Call on EUR/USD if the value will be lower than 0.5%

 

 

 

3. Bank of England Inflation Report

05/14/2014 – Wednesday at 09:30 am GMT

 

What will it affect: GBP, FTSE

Forecast: no forecast is released for this type of event

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: This quarterly published report contains the Bank’s projection on inflation and detailed economic analysis which will be taken into consideration by the Bank’s MPC when future monetary policy and interest rate decisions are made. At the same time, BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the content of this report and his attitude will be closely watched by all market participants, a fact which could lead to erratic market behavior.

 

Directional bias: UP if the Report contains a positive outlook or the Governor has a hawkish attitude

                                 DOWN if the Report contains a negative outlook or the Governor has a dovish attitude.

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events because of potential irregular movement.

 

 

 

4. Euro Zone Consumer Price Index

05/15/2014 – Thursday 09:00 am GMT

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: unchanged 0.7%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX

 

Why traders care and what to expect: ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned during last week’s Press Conference that a rate cut will be probably made in June if the risk of deflation still persists. Since the CPI is the main gauge of inflation, the ECB wants to see it increase; otherwise, the rate will be adjusted. This increases the importance of the CPI release and makes it one of the most influential European indicators for the time being.

 

Directional bias: UP if the actual value is higher than 0.7%

                                 DOWN if the actual value is lower than 0.7%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on EUR/USD if the value of the CPI will be lower than 0.7%

 

 

 

5. US Consumer Price Index (year over year)

05/15/2014 – Thursday at 12:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: 2.0% from the previous 1.5%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The CPI measures changes in the cost of living by tracking changes in the price of a basket of goods and services typically purchased by regular American households. This indicator also reflects the purchasing power of the US Dollar and thus becomes the main gauge of inflation. The Core version of this indicator is released at the same time and traders should keep an eye on it too.

 

Directional bias:  UP the actual value is higher than 2.0%

                                  DOWN if the actual value is lower than 2.0%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Call on S&P 500 if the value will be higher than 2.0%

 

 

 

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 Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.

 

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