Tips From The Geek – Recapping October Trading Tips
The Geek had another great month of trading. Policy expectations and central bank meetings were the focus of the month pushing the dollar higher.
October was a big month for traders. The major indices hit bottom and rallied to multi-month highs, the FOMC rate hike was expected; the meeting came and went with none, and many dollar driven assets reversed near term trends on hawkish outlook. I for one enjoyed the month, it is so much easier to trade when there are clear trends, being driven by events that clearly affect the market. I made 20 tips last month, plus 6 bonus trades based on news/events, and came up with a pretty good month. I’ll be honest, my tips were only 54% right. The good news is that I was nimble, paid attention to the market, and was able to make a number of trades outside the tips that upped my win rate considerably. All 6 of them closed in the money.
Total Cost Of Trading = $13,000
Total Return On Investment = $15,725
Net ROI = +$2,725 or 21% ROI
So, in October, I made 26 trades on CommuniTraders. Of these there were only 9 losses. This makes a win rate of 65%, pretty damned good and well above the accepted rate necessary for long term success with binary trading. My total cost of trading was $13,000, 26 X $500. My total return was $15,725, my net return was $2, 725. This is a 21% return on investment and one of my better months this year.
Dollars, The Fed, Mixed Data, Dovish ECB
Week One 10/5/2015
This is the week after the US markets hit bottom, the 2nd time, and began their march higher. The SPX gained more than 16% over the next month and I profited many times. Every one of my SPX trades in October was a winner. This week, aside from the broad market, I also profited on the USO, followig upside momentum even though I was bearish. My trades on gold, the euro and the yen all failed, the dollar was acting wanky, but I was able to correct one of those trades with a short term position on the euro.
Week Two 10/12/2015
This is the week of the FOMC minutes, along with about a half dozen speeches from the FOMC. The crazy bastards can’t agree on when and how to raise rates, and the meeting and minutes contradict too. In any event I profited on the ongoing uptrend in the SPX and made two good dollar based trades, the yen and gold. The euro was caught in a range and did not move as expected, neither did the USO. Or I should say, the USO ended its uptrend and fell back to support as expected, I was just trading the wrong way at the time. I made two bonus trades this week, the SPX on opening momentum, the euro once I saw what was really going on, both profited.
Week Three 10/19/2015
This is the week the ECB came out and said they were thinking about more QE come December. This is completely counter to the FOMC stance and served to drive the euro and the dollar further toward parity. The good news is that I profited on 3 of my tips, and on 3 bonus trades. I lost out on gold and the euro, gold hit its peak, the euro was still acting wanky. Bonus trades on the spx gold and the euro overcame those losses in the end.
Week Four 10/26/2015
This is the week of the FOMC meeting. These guys came out and surprised us all with a entirely hawkish statement pointing to a rate hike in December. The news sent the dollar soaring, gold tanking and other assets wondering what the heck was going on. I profited on the SPX, gold and the euro. The yen pulled back before shooting higher, unexpected and cause for my loss. Oil prices moved sideways, cause for that loss.