Tip from the Geek – Vacation Is Over, Time for Trading!

Binary Options Trading Tips from the Geek 09/01-08/2014

This week marks the end of the summer season and the end of the summer trader vacations. It is Labor Day once again and that means it is the first of September and that the fall trading season has begun. Simply based on the Traders Almanac I would expect to start seeing some volume return to the market this week. Because of the holiday US markets are closed Monday so Tuesday may be slow but by the end of the week volume should be here. On top of the change in trading season it is also a pretty big week for economic data. The trends are up and traders will be intensely focused on what this weeks numbers will tell us. There is some important housing/construction and inflationary data but the real gem of the week will be the all important jobs numbers. ADP, Challenger, NFP and Unemployment are released throughout the week and will be the data of choice for many if not all traders.

 

So, going into the start of the week, ahead of all this market moving data and with the expectation of market volume returning, what do the markets look like? Ready is what I say. Ready for what will be determined by the data I think but the trends are up so that is they way I am leaning. The US stock indices are up at or near all time/long term highs after recovery from last months correction. The dollar is trending higher on economics and global non-US weaker than expected data. Gold is down below support with the weight of higher interest rates dragging at it and Oil is bouncing higher after the sharp correction it experienced last month. Each and every market that I follow and trade regularly looks as if they are in play and ready to go. All we need is the catalyst and I think that is what this week will bring.

 

Geo politics is still  a threat to the market. Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine is not stopping so I am expecting to also see new news on this front. However, based on last weeks response to new headlines I also think the market is over it. I may be wrong but Friday the news of Russia troops operating in the Ukraine was shrugged off in favor of a new high.

 

 

 

1. S&P 500 Waiting To Go

SPX

Call/Put = Call

Entry = Below 2000

Expiration = One Week

 

My Trading Advice

Last month the SPX corrected to trend on rising fear of geopolitics. This move happened on low volume and bounced from the long term trend line back to previous and new all time high levels. Near term fear and lack of volume weighed the market down but rising economics, primarily in the form of low jobless claims numbers, better than expected manufacturing data and the upward revision in 2nd quarter GDP. Now the index is sitting on support at long term high levels just waiting for the next move.

 

The data this week will be the key. There is very little in the way of earnings and no other catalysts that I can foresee, not counting geopolitics. The market is expecting to see more sign the economy is improving but not so much that the hike in interest rates will be expected too early. Basically a Goldilocks situation. I am confident the data will be good and that the rally will continue with another move higher into October/November. I am trading a call on the SPX with one week of expiry and a target entry below 20000.

 

 

 

2. Gold, Not Yet

Gold

Call/Put = Put

Entry = Above $1285

Expiration = One Week

 

My Trading Advice

Gold is down below long term support and indicated lower. The rising tide of economics, stronger dollar and threat of higher interest rates is pulling prices down because there is just no reason to be long gold instead of equities. I am still bearish on gold and trading a put this week. My target entry is above $1285 with one week until expiry.

 

 

 

3. Oil Firms

USO/Oil ETF

Call/Put = Call

Entry = Below $35

Expiration = One Week

 

My Trading Advice

Oil prices are firming after falling from fear induced highs. The drop was overreached and now prices are moving higher, back to a more realistic pricing level in light of the rising economic tide. I am trading a call on the USO this week with a target entry below $35 and one week until expiry.

 

 

 

4. Dollar Firming

USD/JPY

Call/Put = Call

Entry = Below 104.25

Expiration = One Week

 

My Trading Advice

The dollar has been firming for many weeks as US economics improve and global economics do not. The US recovery program is working while those in the EU, China and Japan are all facing renewed headwinds. The yen has been losing ground steadily, rising from the lower end of a long term range, breaking resistance and indicated higher. The pair is moving up toward the 105 level and long term resistance and should get there this week. I am trading a call on the pair with a target entry below 104.25 and one week until expiry.

 

 

 

5. ECB Expected To Ease

EUR/USD

Call/Put = Call

Entry = Below 1.3150

Expiration = One Week

 

My Trading Advice

The ECB is expected by many to enact some form of QE this week at their monthly meeting. The thing is that Mario Draghi, bank chairman, has been talking the talk for some time now. One reason to do QE would be to weaken the euro against the dollar in order to stimulate trade but with the euro trending lower already why would they need to? The EUR/USD is trading at long term support now and will likely rise once the ECB meeting is over. I am trading a call on the EUR/USD with a target entry below 1.3150 and one week until expiry.

 

 

 

 More Tips by the Geek – 09/01-08/2014 Trading Tips On Forum.

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That’s it for this week; Michael will be here next week with fresh trading tips. Meanwhile, we will be testing Michael’s tips to see what kind of an “expert” he really is. All trading assets and expiry times featured in Michael’s trading tips are based on CommuniTraders Binary Options Trading Platform.

 

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