Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 10/28-11/01/2013

The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

 

1. US Advance Retail Sales

10/29/2013 – Tuesday at 12:30 pm GMT 

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: 0.0% from previous 0.2%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The indicator measures the change in retail sales volume compared to previous month. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy and makes up for about two thirds of all economic activity. The sales made at a retail level make up for about one third of all consumer spending so higher than expected values are beneficial for the economy. The indicator was delayed for 18 days due to the US Government shutdown.

 

Directional bias:  UP the actual value will be higher than 0.0%

                                  DOWN if the actual value will be lower than 0.0%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on EUR/USD if the value will be higher than anticipated.

 

 

 

2. US Consumer Price Index

10/30/2013 – Wednesday at 12:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: 1.2% from the previous 1.5%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Consumer prices are directly related to inflation; if consumers pay more for the same product than they did during the previous analyzed period, it means inflation is higher. A CPI value which is outside a certain range may eventually determine the central bank to adjust interest rates and that’s why traders keep a close eye on this indicator.

 

Directional bias:  UP if the CPI is above 1.2%

                                  DOWN if the CPI is below 1.2%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy 15 minute and hourly Calls on USD/JPY if the actual value will be at least 1.2%.

 

 

 

3. US Interest Rate Decision

10/30/2013 – Wednesday at 6:00 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: unchanged 0.25%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Daily FX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The Rate is not expected to change so the actual release will probably not be the main market mover. Instead, the FOMC Statement released at the same time will create more volatility and stronger moves. The Statement usually contains the members’ outlook on the economic situation and possible clues about future direction.  

     

Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement is more hawkish than expected

                                   DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement is more dovish than expected

 

How I would trade this event: I would wait for a clear direction to be established before trading.

 

 

 

4. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision

10/30/2013 – Wednesday at 8:00 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: NZD

Forecast: unchanged, 2.50%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Daily FX, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The Rate decision is accompanied by the RBNZ statement which is the primary tool the Bank uses to inform investors about its monetary policy, economic outlook and most importantly, it can provide clues about future market direction.

 

Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement is more hawkish than expected

                                 DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement is more dovish than expected

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events. Once a direction is established, I will trade accordingly.

 

 

 

5. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

10/31/2013 – Thursday early morning (exact time not known at the moment)

 

What will it affect: JPY, Japanese Indices

Forecast: unchanged

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX.

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Once every month the members of the BoJ Policy Board meet to analyze economic developments and to decide whether to adjust the Interest Rate or not. At each meeting they establish a Guideline for Money Market Operations and the recommendations contained in this document will shape the future monetary direction.

 

Directional bias: UP if the Statement contains a hawkish outlook

                                 DOWN if the Statement contains a dovish outlook

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade at the time of such events. Once volatility is back to normal I will trade accordingly.

            

 

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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.

 

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