The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. Easter Monday
What will it affect: almost all markets
Forecast: The Bunny is long on eggs
Where to keep an eye on the event: At home, with the family
Why traders care and what to expect: The volume in the market will be very thin due to the fact that European Banks are closed. This can result in a difficult trading environment and sharp moves are more likely to happen.
Directional bias: Unpredictable
How I would trade this event: Why trade? Have a break.
2. Japan Overnight Call Rate
04/04/2013 – Thursday early morning GMT
What will it affect: JPY
Forecast: unchanged 0.10%
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters
Why traders care and what to expect: The exact time of the release is not known at the moment but it will be during the night for people living in the GMT time zone. The Interest Rate is the main tool used by Central Banks to control inflation but it is known in advance and surprises happen rarely. The Press Conference that follows is usually a bigger market mover than the rate decision itself.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased
DOWN if the Rate is decreased
How I would trade this event: I would buy 15 minute Puts on USD/JPY if the Rate will be increased
3. UK Official Bank Rate
04/04/2013 – Thursday at 11:00 am GMT
What will it affect: GBP, FTSE
Forecast: unchanged 0.50%
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters,
Why traders care and what to expect: We’ve discussed the importance of the Interest Rate numerous times, but another indicator that comes out at the same time is the Asset Purchase Facility value. This represents the total value of money printed by the Bank of England for purchasing assets in the market with the purpose of stabilizing the currency. At the moment the values is 375B and is expected to remain unchanged.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the APF is decreased
DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the APF is increased
How I would trade this event: I would place 15 minute Puts on GBP/USD and FTSE 100 if the rate is decreased or the APF is increased.
4. Euro Minimum Bid Rate and the ECB Press Conference
04/04/2013 – Thursday at 11:45 am GMT
What will it affect: EUR, DAX
Forecast: unchanged 0.75%
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg, Reuters, ECB website
Why traders care and what to expect: Unless the Rate is changed, the event will be overshadowed by the ECB Press Conference headlined by Mario Draghi’s speech and answers to journalists’ questions. The Press Conference will start 45 minutes after the rate decision and Mario Draghi’s attitude will create a lot of volatility in the market.
Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the President is hawkish in his attitude and answers
DOWN if the rate is decreased or if the President is dovish in his attitude and answers
How I would trade this event: I would wait for a direction to be decided and trade accordingly
5. US Non Farm Payrolls
04/05/2013 – Friday at 12:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: USD, DOW JONES, S&P 500 some US Stocks
Forecast: At the moment Forex Factory posts a decrease from 236K to 201K, DailyFx announces a decrease from 236K to 190K and Bloomberg anticipates a decrease to 193K. As you can see, important financial websites post different numbers so during the week you will have to keep an eye out for a consensus.
Where to keep an eye on the event:, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forex Factory, DailyFX
Why traders care and what to expect: More employed people are a sign of increased economic activity and the NFP is the main gauge for US employment. It is also a leading indicator of consumer spending because an employed person is likely to spend more than a jobless one. The NFP is known to be a major market mover so be careful if you are going to trade at the time of the release.
Directional bias: UP if the actual number is higher than anticipated
DOWN if the actual number is lower than anticipated
How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on EUR/USD if the value will be higher than 220K
Keep Tracking of the Upcoming Binary Options Trading Events and discuss with Bogdan and Friends on our Forum!
***Note: The exact time, date and value for the release of the Earnings reports may change or it is not announced at the moment. It is possible that the date will be updated as well. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for the actual release.