Weekly Top 5 Market Moves – Happy New Year! 1/1-4/2013
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
The Must Watch Top 5 Events of the Week
1. New Year’s Eve and the 1st of January
12/31/2012 – 01/01/2013 – Monday and Tuesday
What will it affect: All pairs and assets.
Forecast: Low volume in the market and irregular movement
Where to keep an eye on the event: The place is a personal choice, but make sure you are close to the ones you love.
Why traders care and what to expect: Almost all financial institutions will be closed during those two days, especially on the 1st of January when an open brokerage firm is as rare as rain in the Sahara desert.
Directional bias: Happy New Year!!!
How I will trade this event: I will Call my friends and family and wish them everything I wish for myself.
2. UK Manufacturing PMI
01/02/2013 – Wednesday at 09:30 am GMT
What will it affect: FTSE, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY
Forecast: 49.2 from a previous of 49.1
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory Calendar
Why traders care and what to expect: It is a leading indicator of economic growth or decline and it is based on the opinion of about 600 surveyed Purchasing Managers of companies activating in the Manufacturing industry. Higher values for this indicator are good for the economy and for the UK Indices
Directional bias: UP on FTSE if the numbers are higher than 49.2
DOWN on FTSE if the numbers are lower than 49.2
How I would trade this event: I would buy hourly Calls if the numbers will be higher than 52.1. The fact that this indicator is released in the first trading day of the year would probably make me not trade
3.United States FOMC Meeting minutes
01/03/2013 – Thursday at 7:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: S&P 500, DOW Jones, EUR/USD, some US Stocks
Forecast: no forecast is made for this type of event
Where to keep an eye on the event: Bloomberg, Reuters or other well known financial news websites
Why traders care and what to expect: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases the meeting minutes, containing the breakdown of its members’ vote regarding the Federal Rate and also insights on the main financial and economic reasons that determined them to vote the way they did.
Directional bias: UP if the Minutes are more hawkish than expected
DOWN if the Minutes are less hawkish than expected
How I would trade this event: I would keep an eye at the time of release on some of the most well known financial/political/news websites (also mentioned earlier) and I would adapt my strategy depending on what is announced.
4. United States Non-Farm Employment Change
01/04/2013 – Friday at 1:30 pm GMT
What will it affect: S&P 500, DOW Jones, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
Forecast: 145K from a previous of 146K
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory Calendar
Why traders care and what to expect: This is one of the most important US economic indicators and measures the change in the number of employed persons, without taking into account the farming industry. In a growing economy, people can find jobs easier so if the numbers will be bigger than anticipated, that will be indicative of good economic conditions and the main indices and stocks will probably go up.
Directional bias: UP if the numbers are higher than 145K
DOWN if the numbers are lower than 145K
How I would trade this event: I would buy Calls with a 15 minute expiry on the DOW and S&P if the numbers will be higher than 171K
5.United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
01/04/2013 – Friday at 3:00 pm GMT
What will it affect: S&P 500, DOW Jones, EUR/USD,
Forecast: 54.3 from a previous of 54.7
Where to keep an eye on the event: Forex Factory Calendar
Why traders care and what to expect: Trading decisions are influenced by this high impact indicator which is based on the opinion of about 400 surveyed purchasing managers. Businesses react quickly to changes in the overall state of the economy and the managers in charge of new purchases are very aware of minor changes in supplier prices, transportation issues and inventories (etc.). PMI stands for Purchasing Managers’ Index.
Directional bias: UP if the value is higher than 54.3
DOWN if the value is lower than 54.3
How I would trade this event: I would buy Daily Calls on the DOW or S&P if the numbers will be higher than 55.1 and Puts if the numbers will be lower than 53.7
Keep Tracking of the Upcoming events and discuss them with Bogdan and Friends on our Forum Here!