After quite a losing streak I think I am back in the game. The month of May turned out to be a tricky one but I was able to grab the market by the scruff of its neck and hang on long enough to come out with some profits. There were myriad undercurrents affecting the market, many of them still present, which was also a challenge. Just when I think the usual correlations are working they weren’t, and when I went against them they were which gets to be frustrating let me tell you. In any event the month was a good one and once we get past the June ECB and FOMC meetings the market can settle down for a good 4-6 week’s of calm and quiet conditions, not counting geopolitical events of course.
Total Cost Of Trading = $12,500
Total Return On Investment = $13,875
Net Return On Investment = $1,375 or 11%
May was one of those months with 5 Monday’s which means 25 tips. Of those tips I won a total of 15 and lost 10 for a win rate of 60%. Using the max $500 per trade means $12,500 in total cost with a return of $13,875 and a profit of $1,375. This works out to about 11% ROI for the month. The NADEX account is working out a little differently. In there I am using trades of 10 lots with a price/risk in the range of $40 to $50 per lot depending on the trade and etc. So far I’ve been tracking it for 3 weeks, using the NADEX tips published each week alongside my regular tips, and the results are good. Barring one major mistake I have detailed in the forum I am profitable and up $505.24 minus commissions. Commissions are a pain, they’ve cut deeply into my profits but that issue should resolve itself over time as my wins build up.
What Happened In May?
A lot more economic data, much of it tepid, earnings season and a lot of geopolitical rigmarole. North Korea kept doing its thing, politics in Europe continue to simmer, Trump went on a tour of Europe and the Mid-East to dubious effect and his scandals continue to mature. All the while the economic data was a bit tepid, really Goldilocks to tell the truth, but it caused FOMC outlook to soften and that affected forex in a weird way with ECB outlook firming and BOJ outlook still dovish. I missed out on a few of the forex trades but not all. Gold was better at 4 out of 5 wins because it had the fear factor supporting it and taking it to new highs. My best trade was the SPX and with it I managed to win 5 out of 5.
Week One May 1st
“This could be the biggest week for the market in at least 6 weeks. We are smack in the middle of earnings season, we get a ton of economic data, the FOMC is meeting and geopolitics continue to play a role. Exiting times, exiting times. Now, how to trade them…” They were exiting times but once again the central banks did not quite live up to expectations and the market reacted. I was basically on time with my assessment though, I won 4 out 5 trades and had the best week of the month.
Week Two May 8th
“This week will be all about earnings, and the inflation data, look out for both CPI and PPI.” It was also about OPEC and oil prices, and shifting sentiment towards the central banks, and geopolitical BS as usual. I won 2 out of the 5 trades, S&P 500 and USD/JPY.
Week Three May 15th
“ Correlations are breaking down in the currency world and have the dollar moving in opposite directions versus the yen and the euro.” I was more or less right this week. I won 4 out of 5 trades including the EUR/USD, Gold and Oil but lost out on the USD/JPY as flight to safety was in support.
Week Four May 22nd
“There is not a lot of economic or earnings data this week but still some market moving events. Trumps trip overseas is already sparking positive headlines and OPEC is expected to cut/extend cuts to production on Thursday. I’m bullish on the equities market, I just don’t see reversal in the charts, and trading accordingly.” Bullish on equities was right, and just about the only thing I was right on this week. I won only 2 of 5 including the SPX and Gold, oil crapped out on OPEC and the dollar was not able to rebound.
Week Five May 30th
“Gonna be an interesting week. It is the end of the month, lots of macro data and of course, geopolitical concerns. I’m bullish on equities and the dollar” Once again I was right on equities and horribly wrong on the dollar. The sands of forex sentiment are shifting and made for shaky trading. I won the SPX, Oil and Gold but lost out on both the EUR and JPY trades.