The market was basically range bound the entire the month and by the market I mean oil, gold, equities and currencies. What they did do was adjust within those ranges as FOMC, ECB and BOJ policy came under scrutiny, economic data continued to trend toward FOMC rate hike, US election uncertainty gripped the market and OPEC wheeling and dealing sparked some volatility in the oil markets. The good news is that the moves were big enough, or at least with enough vigor, to establish some week to week trends. For me this meant a lot of bearish trading, I was anticipating correction in the S&P 500 and oil and tracking a strong trend in the dollar that led to some good trades in gold and forex.
Total Cost Of Trading = $12,500
Total Return = $16,500
Net Return on Investment = 33%
There were 5 Monday’s in October, 5 tips per week so 25 tips. I did not do any extra trading last month, with the baby and all I’m pretty busy on a day to day basis, but I did have a pretty good month. A relief actually, the last few months have been pretty difficult with all the geo-political storms, earnings recession and FOMC fear in the market. Of the 25 tips I won 18 with one perfect week to boot. This means a win rate of 72%, above average for me, and total returns in excess of 33% ROI. My total cost was $12,500, my total return was $16,650, my net was $4,150, not a bad little month of trading.
What Happened In October
What happened is that each market became gripped with its own brand of caution. Equities earnings declines, oil OPEC, Gold and the dollar the FOMC and through it all the elections. Overall the markets were within ranges, or below resistances, but smaller patterns and wind-ups within those ranges were broken, in particular the dollar, and that led to some decent moves. The dollar index climbed nearly the entire month, the equities market drift down to the bottom of its range, gold fell to support and oil made this kind of rounding/double top that made trading like shooting fish in a barrel.
Week One October 3rd 2016
This was a big data week and the week before the FOMC meeting minutes release. The markets kind of held steady, holding its breath, waiting for what was to come whatever it may be. This was a pretty good week, I made 4 wins only losing out on oil, and they were solid wins. My loss, that was due to OPEC news sending prices back up to resistance, can’t help that, it could happened at any time.
Week Two October 10th 2016
This was a big week because of the FOMC minutes and not much else. They were expected to have discussed a rate hike, and possibly to indicate when it would be, and they kinda did. The Dollar Index began its move out of a triangle pattern, gold made a corresponding move and forex did as well. This was my best week, I made 5 wins, 100%, and felt good about it…. a few weeks later when I went back to check the month’s results.
Week Three October 17th 2016
This was another week of ranging markets but one with lots of eventful data. The ECB meeting, the Fed’s Beige Book and the onset of earnings seasons all had their effects. I managed to win 3 out of 5, not the best but still 60% for the week, and only lost due to random volatility as the near term trends were petering out.
Week Four October 24th 2016
This was another big week for earnings, and the first read on US 3rd quarter GDP, and still the election angst was building. For me, another week of 60% win rate, 3 out of 5, losing both trades on forex, the euro and the yen. My gold trade made it, barely, as did oil and the SPX.
Week Five October 31st 2016
This was the week after the FBI announced a renewed investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails, and the market crashed. I was quick, I got into a few good trades, but not all. Once again I managed to pull of 60%, losing out on both the forex trades again.