Tip from the Geek – Top 5 Binary Options Trading Tips List 4/8-15/2013

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Data, Earnings And Outlook Will Drive This Market

This is a tricky week for speculators. The weaker than weak jobs report on Friday has us all spooked and earnings season has us all spooked. Alcoa kicks earnings season off this afternoon with its after-the-bell release. Last quarter Alcoa reported a meager $0.06 per share and offered the first look at how Q1 2013 was going to be. The company guidance was weak and set the tone for the past round of earnings releases. Because the outlook for Q1 was so weak I think that guidance and current estimates are set too low. Economic data throughout the first quarter was much better than expected and this leads me to think that revenues and earnings could be better than expected.


I know the jobs report last Friday was beyond bad but it could just be a one-off kind of thing. Another thing to consider is that jobs creation for the previous two months were also revised up. On a net basis the March report was really more like 140,000 instead of the 88,000 we actually got. Other than that the first three months of the year were good for jobs, unemployment and housing…all good for the economy, the consumer, spending and earnings. Alcoa is not crucial in the overall outlook as far as earnings are concerned but it could give move the market nonetheless. For this reason I am waiting till later in the week for most of my trades, at least until Tuesday.


The rest of the week is fairly mild in terms of earnings. Tuesday-Thursday there are maybe 100 reports scheduled from minor companies. Friday things will really heat up with the first releases from the banking sector. Wells Fargo and JP Morgan are both reporting on Friday and could be another market event. Both are expected to earn roughly in line with the previous quarters EPS results, surprises and guidance will be the big take-away’s for the market.




1. S&P Waiting For Earnings


Call/Put = Call

Entry = below 1550

Expiry = end of the month


My Trading Idea

The bad jobs report on Friday is a concern but it is only just one piece of data. Spring slowing in jobs should have been expected. When I looked back at my table of job growth last March saw a big dip as well followed by a short period of slower job growth. Based on this I would expect to see something similar this year unless housing just explodes with new construction. This is affecting my longer term outlook as I am still looking for a long term top to kick in. This could happen soon, especially if the S&P can’t get above 1575.  In the short term I still see upside in the market going into earnings season.


The jobs report was bad, it sent the S&P 500 down by 20 points. What it also did was test support and support was there. 1550 looks like a pretty strong level based on the Friday candle and the line which the bulls and bears will battle over this week. I am waiting for after Alcoa’s release to make my trade but I am looking to get into calls below 1550 with an end of the month expiration. If Alcoa’s report is really bad, or outlook is really bad I may have to change my stance. A serious break below 1550 could take the index down to 1525 by the end of the week.




2. A Whale Of A Trade


Call/Put = Call

Entry = below $48

Expiry = end of the week


My Trading Idea

JP Morgan stock has been moving down lately but only on talk. Speculation over Jamie Dimon’s responsibility with the Whale trade and whether or not he is fit to run the business have over shadowed the facts. The facts are this is JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon we’re talking about. He is arguably the best CEO in the financial industry, well respected and highly capable. With the stock down the way it is, about 5% from the recent peak, the candle formation last week and earnings on Friday I can’t help but take a trade on this one. I am trading calls on JP Morgan with an entry below $48 and an end of the week expiration. I am going to wait until at least Tuesday before buying, I want to see how Alcoa does and how the markets react to it.




3. Nikkei Rally Has Two Long Legs Names Abe And Kuroda

Nikkei 225

Call/Put = Call

Entry = below 13,100

Expiration = end of the month


My Trading Idea

The Nikkei trade has gotten its legs. The policy and direction of Abe has been enforced and enacted by Kuroda and now the expectations of the market can come to pass. Japan is going to keep printing yen and buying purchasing assets with government funds until it reaches the 2% inflation target. I have read some estimates that this could take up to 2 years. During this time the Nikkei will keep rising as more and more yen become available. I am in a buy on the dip mentality on this one. I am trading calls on the Nikkei with an entry below 13,100 with an end of the month expiration.




4. USD/JPY Rally On!


Call/Put = Call

Entry = below 98.50

Expiration = end of the month


My Trading Idea

As with the Nikkei so with the USD/JPY.  The work of Abe and Kuroda will continue to drive this trade for many months and I am buying the dips so to speak. The pair has made a nice 3 white soldiers formation (for more on that see Bogdan’s article on candlesticks) and is looking really good for a nice rally that could go as high 110. For now I’m looking for a little pullback and then a push up to 100. I am looking to trade a call with a target entry below 98.50 and an end of the month expiration.




5. Quiet Europe And Bad U.S. Data Help The Euro


Call/Put = Call

Entry = below 1.3045

Expiration = end of the week


My Trading Idea

The EU seems to be quieting again. News from the hot spots is tame. Spain, Italy, Greece and Cyprus have all retreated to equally routine status. It is possible that things could flare up at any time but for this week at least it seems as if things are under control. The euro has been able to strengthen against the dollar and EUR/USD pairs looks bullish for the short term. I am trading a call on this pair with a target entry below 1.3045 and an end of the week expiration.




That’s it for this week; Michael will be here next week with fresh trading tips. Meanwhile, we will be testing Michael’s tips to see what kind of an “expert” he really is. All trading assets and expiry times featured in Michael’s trading tips are based on AnyOption Binary Options Trading Platform.


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