Weekly Top 5 Binary Options Analysis and Forecast 12/09-13/2013

The Must-Watch Top 5 Events of the Week

 

1. United Kingdom NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate

12/10/2013 – Tuesday at 3:00 pm GMT 

 

What will it affect: GBP, FTSE

Forecast: the event itself is the forecast; previous was 0.7%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX

 

Why traders care and what to expect: This is an unofficial estimate of the UK GDP which will be released a month later. The estimate is made by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and it’s highly respected due to its proven accuracy over time. High NIESR estimates are usually bullish for the Pound

 

Directional bias:  UP if the estimated value is higher than 0.7%

                                 DOWN if the estimated value is lower than 0.7%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy an hourly Put on GBP/USD and one on FTSE if the estimate will not be higher than 0.8%

 

 

 

 2. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate

12/11/2013 – Wednesday at 8:00 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: NZD, New Zealand stocks and indices

Forecast: unchanged 2.50%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Interest rates are crucial for currency valuation and future price direction. The rate is not expected to change, but the release is followed by a Press Conference and a Rate Statement, outlining the reasons that determined the rate decision and containing hints about future monetary direction.

 

Directional bias: UP if the Rate is increased or the Statement contains a positive outlook

                                 DOWN if the Rate is decreased or the Statement contains a negative outlook

 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade during such events. Once volatility subsides, I would trade according to the established direction if there is one.

 

 

 

3. Speech of ECB President Mario Draghi

12/12/2013 – Thursday at 08:00 am GMT

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory

 

Why traders care and what to expect: Mario Draghi will speak about the ECB policy at the European Parliament debate in Strasbourg. Most of his public speeches create strong moves and a speech about the monetary policy almost guarantees volatility.

 

Directional bias: UP if the President has a hawkish attitude

                                  DOWN if the President has a dovish attitude 

                 

How I would trade this event: I don’t trade such events. The market will be highly influenced by the matters discussed and all moves can be reversed immediately.

 

                                         

 

4. ECB Monthly Bulletin

12/12/2013 – Thursday at 09:00 am GMT

 

What will it affect: EUR, DAX

Forecast: no forecast is announced for this type of event

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Bloomberg, Reuters, DailyFX, Forex Factory, ECB official website

 

Why traders care and what to expect: The Bulletin shows the statistical data that was used by the European Central Bank when they made their latest Interest Rate decision. It also contains the Bank’s view on future economic conditions and developments. This has a high impact on investors’ sentiment and can determine the Euro’s next direction.  

 

Directional bias: UP if the Bulletin contains a hawkish outlook

                                   DOWN if the Bulletin contains a dovish outlook

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy hourly Puts on EUR/USD if the Bulletin is not extremely hawkish.

 

 

 

5. US Retail Sales 

12/12/2013 – Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT

 

What will it affect: USD, US stocks and indices

Forecast: 0.6% from the previous 0.4%

Where to keep an eye on the event: CommuniTraders, Forex Factory, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

Why traders care and what to expect: This is the most important gauge of consumer spending at a retail level. Consumer spending represents about two thirds of the entire US economic activity and retail sales make up for about one third of all consumer spending, hence the importance of this release.

 

Directional bias:  UP the actual number will be higher than 0.6%

                                  DOWN if the actual number will be lower than 0.6%

 

How I would trade this event: I would buy a four hour Put on AUD/USD if the actual value is higher than 0.4%

 

 

 

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Note: The times, dates and values can change during the week. Also, different sources sometimes show different values. Keep an eye on the mentioned financial websites for any modifications.

 

 

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