March Madness Fever Hits the Geek
Well, it was bound to happen sooner or later. I had a losing month. In my defense it was not a month of huge losses, only $35 or 2.5% of investment, but losses none the less. The major world markets were pushing up against the resistance of new all time highs and had a hard time getting over the hump of Cyprus bail out fears. Another thing to note is that this month was also my highest rate of untriggered trades. Much of my analysis was correct but my entries were too conservative and I just wasn’t able to get into all the trades I wanted to. On a side note I want to point out that I did not chase prices trying to get into these trades. If I had done that my win/loss ratio would have been much worse. As it is I made 7 winning trades and 7 losing trades leaving 6 untriggered. For those of you new to binary options it is generally accepted that you need to be at least 54.5% right in order to remain profitable.
First Time in a Long Time, I Lost.
In March I made a total of 20 predictions on major world indexes, currency pairs and one stock. Out of those 20 14 triggered, and 6 did not. My total cost of trading for the month was $1400 ($100 per trade) and my total return on investment was $1365. My average return on winners remained near the 180% mark and my return on losers is set at 15%($15). This month is a great example of why account risk management and a systematic approach is the best way to trade. I could easily have made up the loss with a bigger trade but which one? If I had made a trade outside my rules and risk management I could also have easily doubled my losses or worse, gotten on a bad run and lost it all.
Total Cost Of Trading = -$1400
Total Return On Winners = $1260
Total Return On Losers = $105
Net Profit/Loss = -$35(2.5% of investment)
My big wins for the month were in the S&P 500. This is not a surprise to me since it is the market I most closely follow and trade with the most frequency. If I can’t stay profitable here I may as well hang it up and move on to a 9-5 job. I made a total of 4 predictions for the SPX and was able to get into 3 of those trades leaving one untriggered. My win/loss ratio on the SPX was 75%.
The USD/JPY was my next top pick for the month. I made a total of 4 predictions here as well but was only able to profit on 2 of them. This pair entered a consolidation zone after the confirmation of Kuroday as BOJ chief and failed to move in the manner I anticipated. Out of the four predictions two lost making the ratio here 50%.
The EUR/USD is another of my favorite assets to trade. I got a little lucky here, out of 4 predictions 3 triggered, two lost and one profited and one remained untriggered. The one win was a little lucky, I managed to get in at a much better price than anticipated which is the only reason why it profited.
Europe and Asia
I like to use the DAX as a proxy for the greater Eurozone. I made four predictions here and of them 3 triggered and one went untriggered. The three trades I did make were all losers. Not cool. The Nikkei was another huge disappointment. I made only three predictions here, choosing to stand aside the final week. The valuation of these stocks is wanky right now because of all the fiscal stimulus and expectations for stimulus. All three Nikkei trades failed to close in the money, very un-samurai like.
This month I ventured into the realm of individual stocks. I mostly trade indexes; I just like it better and have always had better results. I choose to trade Facebook because of several reasons. First, the settlement for the folks who lost out on the FB IPO led me to look at the chart. Then the chart told me FB was looking good for a bottom around $25. Whether or not this bottom holds is not the question, the question is whether or not it held until my call expired and it did.